I recently read a brilliant book called The Black Swan
and in it the author talks about some career advice he got at business
school. He was told to do something scalable. This meant pick
a career whereby the same amount of work could have vastly different
results, like writing a book. It takes the same amount of time and
effort to write a book that sells a million copies as it does to sell
1. By pursuing scalable careers you are therefore open to a situation
in which the rewards for your work can be massive without actually having to work 'harder'. Financial trading is another example. Make a
trade and the same effort has gone into it whether or not you make a million
or nothing at all. This is all in contrast to more predictable careers
whereby you're paid by the hour. A dentist for example, or a lawyer. As
you're paid by the hour you can only earn more by working harder and/or for longer and given there are only 24hrs in a day there is a pretty set limit to the rewards you can achieve.
This strikes me as a pretty useful way to think about different
graduate jobs. Especially as those that are suscepitible to scalability and those that aren't have
other distinctions worth noting. One of the big things that the author observes is that scalable careers tend to be populated my giants and
minnows. For every best selling author there are thousands of unknown
writers. And unfortunately he makes a very persuasive argument that
it's more likely to be luck than talent that separates the two. Non
scalable careers on the other hand tend to be more middle of the road,
with outcomes slightly less impacted by random events.
So what kind of job would you want? One where your hard work could
reap huge rewards or none. Or one in which you plod along doing
very nicely thanks?
The author recommends sticking to non scalable careers. You can earn
a healthy living (not many dentists on the poverty line) and your life
and success is much more predictable. A quick survey of the
CareerPlayer team has us in the scalable camp. Sure you might end up a
small impoverished minnow but the excitement, the possibility of
beating the odds and becoming a giant...we couldn't concentrate without
it.